Thursday , September 29 2022

Understanding goes through the exam, eyes on the system


The latest EBA stress tests did not include promotional actions or failures, but were used to confirm the distribution of a large loan such as Intesa Sanpaolo, which in the third quarter increased nine months to 3 billion, and banks less wide and therefore more exposed in the event of shock or recession.

For Italian institutions, in the case of the "unfavorable" scenario, the test results remain within the range of 2.2% of Intesa's risk assets at 4.5% for Banco Bpm. Not only that. As mentioned on the website, Andrea Resti, Bocconi's lecturer and adviser to the European Parliament for banking supervision, the latest tests do not provide data from the national authorities' banks and details of sovereign exposures that would allow simulation of the effect of a further margin on margin (yesterday closed to 300 basis points). In December, EBA will publish more detailed information on the 130 large banking groups in the EU (against 48 on November 2), which will be complemented by exposures to the states and updated in June. Meanwhile, Vice-President De Guindos said on Monday that fragile banks would have to strengthen their banks in terms of capital. And yesterday, Nomura analysts in the report used the ECB's third Tltro proposal (long-term interest rate subsidy) that would "do well for Italian institutions" because it would reduce the risk of contagion if it were to be implemented under liquidity tensions. The first Tltro program was in June 2014 and the second in March 2016: the loans will be due from June 2020 to March 2021 for a total of 740 billion and approximately 30% of this amount was requested by Italian banks.

Those who will not be afraid of new stress are Intesa Sanpaolo, which responds to a "sale" that Goldman Sachs gathered on Thursday with a healthy quarter: In the first nine months, the Carl Messina Group earned a net profit of over 3 billion (+ 26% last year). The results of the third quarter also grew with a profit of 833 million (650 million in September 2017). This figure is better than the consensus of analysts predicting a profit of 791 million. Meanwhile, the bank's position on Italian sovereign bonds remains stable with an exposure of EUR 28.1 billion. Although the spread spread had a negative impact on capital by 45 points, the institute also has a sound financial position. During the presentation of the accounts yesterday, the bank also responded to the situation in Italy as a "fireman" by responding to the analyst: "It is true that there were situations that could be better communicated by the government, but also by the EU Commission", and in any case " is something other than this if someone wants to do a stress test other than Eba, but the reality of the basics is different, there are no Armageddon scenarios, and if we want to see the end of the world, we go to the cinema. "

Today, UBI will release a quarterly report (analysts' expectations range between a minimum of 3 million and a loss of 12), but the real test will be Mps (issued on Friday 9) and Carige (Monday 12). Meanwhile, Intesa's Piazza Affari cut its bills by 1.28%, while Ubi sold 0.6%, Monte dropped 2.3%, and Carige sold another 4.4%

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